Back to Knowledge Base
SAT & ACT8 min read

Does the SAT really predict college success in 2026-2027?

Stephanie Wang
Written by
Published June 29, 2026

Does the SAT Still Matter?

Families hear two very different stories about the SAT. One says the test is outdated, stressful, and increasingly irrelevant in a world of test-optional admissions. The other says the SAT remains one of the few standardized measures colleges can use to compare students across thousands of different high schools. The truth is more complicated than either version. The SAT is not a perfect measure of intelligence, potential, or future success, but recent admissions decisions and large-scale studies suggest that it still provides colleges with meaningful information, especially when it is considered alongside GPA, coursework, school context, essays, and recommendations.

The History of the SAT

The SAT was created by Carl Brigham, a Princeton psychologist who adapted ideas from the Army Alpha intelligence test. The College Board first administered the SAT in 1926, and over time, the exam became one of the central tools colleges used to compare students from very different educational backgrounds.

That history is important, because the SAT was never meant to be a simple knowledge test. It was designed to measure academic reasoning: how well a student reads, interprets, calculates, and solves problems under pressure.

Over the decades, the test has changed significantly. The 2005 version added a writing section. The 2016 redesign removed the penalty for wrong answers, made the essay optional, and shifted the reading section toward evidence-based analysis. Most recently, the SAT became fully digital in the United States in 2024. The current test is shorter, adaptive, and designed to give students more time per question.

Each version of the SAT has looked different, but the basic idea has remained similar. The test rewards close reading, logical reasoning, efficient problem-solving, and the ability to avoid tempting wrong answers. Those skills are not the whole of academic success, but they are part of it.

SAT Scores, GPA, and College Success

The most useful question is not whether the SAT “predicts success” in some perfect or deterministic way. No test can do that. The better question is whether SAT scores provide useful information when combined with the rest of a student’s application.

Research generally suggests that they do.

College Board research has found that SAT scores are associated with college GPA and four-year degree completion, including when students are grouped by high school GPA. In one College Board summary of degree-completion data, students with the same “A” high school GPA had very different four-year completion rates depending on SAT score band. Among students with an “A” high school GPA, those with SAT scores between 800 and 990 had a 37% four-year degree completion rate, while those with scores between 1400 and 1600 had a 74% completion rate.

That does not mean the SAT causes graduation. It means SAT scores appear to capture some academic readiness information that GPA alone may not fully show.

The University of California’s own standardized testing analysis reached a similarly nuanced conclusion. UC found that both high school GPA and standardized test scores were moderate predictors of first-year GPA and graduation GPA. In some parts of the analysis, test scores were slightly more predictive of first-year and graduation GPA, while high school GPA was stronger for first-year retention and four-year graduation. Most importantly, UC found that models combining high school GPA and test scores predicted student outcomes better than models using either measure alone.

That distinction matters. The SAT is not better than GPA in every respect, and GPA is not better than the SAT in every respect. GPA reflects years of sustained effort, class performance, teacher expectations, grading standards, and school context. The SAT provides a common academic measure across schools whose grading practices and course offerings can vary widely. Colleges are often most informed when they can see both.

Why Colleges Are Reinstating Testing

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many colleges became test-optional because students could not reliably access testing sites. For a while, it seemed possible that standardized testing might permanently disappear from admissions at highly selective colleges. But in the last few years, several major universities have studied their own admissions data and moved back toward requiring test scores.

Dartmouth reinstated its SAT/ACT requirement beginning with applicants to the Class of 2029. The college said its decision was based on new research showing that high school grades paired with standardized testing were the most reliable indicators of success at Dartmouth. Dartmouth also emphasized that test scores could help identify high-achieving students from low- and middle-income backgrounds, first-generation students, and students from urban and rural communities who might otherwise be overlooked.

Brown also reinstated standardized testing for first-year applicants beginning with the 2024–25 admissions cycle. Brown stated that test scores would be considered in context, as one part of a whole-person admissions review, but that its data review supported returning to a testing requirement.

Harvard reversed its earlier test-optional extension and returned to required testing for students applying for fall 2025 admission. Harvard framed the change as part of a broader effort to use testing as one factor in identifying academic promise across different socioeconomic and educational backgrounds.

Yale adopted a test-flexible policy in 2024, requiring applicants to submit some form of standardized testing, including SAT, ACT, AP, or IB scores. In 2026, Yale updated that policy again and returned to requiring SAT or ACT scores for first-year and transfer applicants.

MIT moved earlier than many peer institutions, reinstating its SAT/ACT requirement in 2022. MIT explained that standardized tests helped assess academic preparedness and could also help identify disadvantaged students who lacked access to advanced coursework or other enrichment opportunities. Caltech, after a temporary test-blind period, also restored its SAT or ACT requirement for first-year applicants beginning with the fall 2024 application cycle.

These decisions do not prove that every college will return to testing. Many institutions remain test-optional or test-free, and students should always check the policies of each school on their list. But the recent movement among highly selective colleges shows that the SAT is not disappearing from admissions. In many places, it is being reconsidered as one useful academic signal among many.

What This Means for Students

The most important thing for students to understand is that an SAT score is information, not destiny.

A strong SAT score can help a student. It can confirm academic readiness, strengthen an application, open scholarship opportunities, and help a student stand out in a large applicant pool. This is especially true when a student comes from a school where grades are difficult for colleges to interpret, advanced courses are limited, or few classmates apply to highly selective colleges.

But a lower score does not mean a student is incapable of succeeding in college. The SAT measures certain skills under timed, standardized conditions. It does not measure curiosity, discipline, creativity, resilience, kindness, leadership, maturity, or the ability to grow. It also does not capture the full context of a student’s education or life.

At the same time, students should be realistic about how admissions offices may read scores. If a student’s SAT score falls well below the middle 50% range for a given college, especially below the 25th percentile for admitted or enrolled students, it can raise questions about academic readiness. This is particularly true at highly selective schools, where the applicant pool is already academically strong and small differences in preparation can matter. A lower score is not an automatic rejection, but it may place more pressure on the rest of the application to demonstrate rigor, strong grades, intellectual maturity, and readiness for college-level work.

That is why students should think about the SAT strategically rather than emotionally. A score is not a verdict on your intelligence. It is a diagnostic tool. It can show whether you need to strengthen algebra, grammar, reading stamina, pacing, or test-taking strategy. It can also help you decide where submitting scores makes sense and where the rest of your application tells a stronger story.

For students applying to test-required schools, the SAT deserves serious preparation because it will be part of the application. For students applying mostly to test-optional schools, the SAT can still be useful if the score strengthens the academic picture. And for students whose scores do not reflect their classroom performance, test-optional policies may allow them to emphasize grades, rigor, recommendations, essays, activities, and lived context instead.

The SAT matters, but it does not matter in isolation. Colleges are not looking for a number without a person attached to it. They are trying to understand whether a student is prepared to do the work, contribute to the campus, and make use of the opportunity in front of them.

A good score can help make that case, while a weaker score would point to areas for growth or signal that the student needs to strengthen other parts of the application. Neither one by itself defines the student.

Sources:

SAT history / Carl Brigham / Army Alpha / 1926 https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/sats/where/history.html

SAT timeline / first SAT administered in 1926 https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/sats/where/timeline.html

Henry Chauncey / Harvard / SAT as meritocratic admissions tool https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2002/12/6/sat-father-harvard-advisor-dies-at/

2016 SAT redesign / no wrong-answer penalty / optional essay / evidence-based reading https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2014/03/05/college-board-unveils-new-sat-major-overhaul-writing-exam

Digital SAT launch in 2024 / shorter adaptive test https://newsroom.collegeboard.org/digital-sat-launches-across-country-completing-transition-digital-and-providing-simpler-testing

Digital SAT format changes / shorter test / more time per question https://newsroom.collegeboard.org/digital-sat-brings-student-friendly-changes-test-experience

SAT scores and four-year bachelor’s degree completion https://research.collegeboard.org/media/pdf/SAT_Score_Relationships_with_College_Degree_Completion.pdf

Plain-English summary of SAT score relationships with degree completion https://allaccess.collegeboard.org/updated-look-sat-score-relationships-college-degree-completion

SAT scores and college GPA through fourth year https://research.collegeboard.org/media/pdf/SAT%28R%29%20Score%20Relationships%20with%20College%20GPA.pdf

SAT/ACT predictive validity at the University of California https://www.ucop.edu/institutional-research-academic-planning/_files/sat-act-study-report.pdf

UC Academic Senate standardized testing report https://senate.universityofcalifornia.edu/_files/underreview/sttf-report.pdf

Dartmouth reinstating SAT/ACT requirement https://president.dartmouth.edu/news/2024/02/reactivating-satact-requirement-dartmouth-undergraduate-admissions

Brown reinstating standardized testing requirement https://www.brown.edu/news/2024-03-05/admissions

Brown current standardized testing policy https://admission.brown.edu/first-year/standardized-tests

Harvard return to required testing https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2024/04/harvard-announces-return-to-required-testing/

Yale 2024 test-flexible policy announcement https://news.yale.edu/2024/02/22/yale-announces-new-test-flexible-admissions-policy

Yale current standardized testing policy https://admissions.yale.edu/standardized-testing

MIT reinstating SAT/ACT requirement https://mitadmissions.org/blogs/entry/we-are-reinstating-our-sat-act-requirement-for-future-admissions-cycles/

MIT explanation of reinstated testing requirement https://news.mit.edu/2022/stuart-schmill-sat-act-requirement-0328

Caltech restoring standardized test requirement https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/caltech-restores-standardized-test-requirement-for-undergraduate-admission

Caltech current standardized testing policy https://www.admissions.caltech.edu/apply/first-year-applicants/standardized-tests

Ready to Get Started?

Whether you have questions about test prep strategy or want to build a personalized study plan, we are here to help.

Get in Touch